Francisco Leandro, University of Macau
The global order is undergoing a profound transformation. The United States, long a proponent of liberal trade and multilateralism, has increasingly adopted mercantilist and nationalist trade policies, emphasizing domestic manufacturing, reciprocal tariffs, and strategic decoupling from China (European Union Institute for Security Studies [EUISS], 2025). This shift challenges the European Union (EU) to rethink its strategic posture. To safeguard its economic and geopolitical interests, the EU should reproach the United Kingdom for its divergence from European norms, deepen ties with Canada and Brazil, establish an effective common defense policy and industry, and improve relations with China.
1. Reproaching the UK - Preserving European Cohesion: Since Brexit, the United Kingdom has charted an independent foreign policy path, often aligning more closely with U.S. strategic interests, particularly in defense and Indo-Pacific engagement (European Commission, 2025). However, recent developments—such as renewed cooperation on regulatory standards in areas like plant and animal health—signal a potential for constructive re-engagement. Rather than focusing solely on reproach, the European Union should pursue a strategy of positive conditional alignment, encouraging the UK to re-anchor itself within a European framework of shared values and strategic interests. This approach would involve deepening sectoral cooperation in areas of mutual benefit, such as climate action, digital regulation, and research innovation, while maintaining firm expectations on adherence to European standards in data protection, environmental policy, and human rights. The EU could also explore structured dialogues on foreign and security policy, particularly in light of shared concerns over global instability and the need for transatlantic coordination. By offering a pathway for closer alignment—without compromising on principles—the EU can reinforce cohesion, reduce fragmentation, and demonstrate that constructive engagement yields tangible benefits. This strategy not only strengthens the European project but also positions the EU as a pragmatic and principled actor in managing post-Brexit relations.
2. Strengthening Relations with Canada and Brazil (MERCOSUR): In response to U.S. protectionism, the EU must diversify its trade and diplomatic partnerships. Canada, a G7 democracy with shared values and a robust trade agreement with the EU (CETA), is a natural partner. The EU is currently conducting an ex-post evaluation of CETA, signaling its intent to deepen this relationship (European Commission, 2025). Enhanced cooperation in digital trade, green technology, and AI governance would benefit both parties. Brazil, under President Lula da Silva, has re-embraced multilateralism and environmental diplomacy. The EU-Mercosur agreement, though controversial, offers a framework for deeper engagement. By addressing environmental concerns and ensuring sustainable development clauses, the EU can unlock access to Latin America’s largest economy while promoting its values abroad (EUISS, 2025). Furthermore, finalizing the agreement would strengthen the EU’s presence in a region where China’s influence is growing rapidly. It would also provide European companies with preferential access to a market of over 260 million people, enhancing competitiveness in sectors such as agriculture, automotive, and pharmaceuticals. A balanced and enforceable trade deal with Mercosur would not only diversify the EU’s economic partnerships but also reinforce its credibility as a global advocate for fair and sustainable trade.
3. Creating an effective Common Defense Policy and Industry: Toward Strategic Autonomy - The EU’s reliance on NATO and, by extension, the U.S., for its security is increasingly precarious. The unpredictability of U.S. foreign policy and its transactional approach to alliances underscore the need for European strategic autonomy. A common EU defense policy would enable more coherent responses to crises, reduce duplication, and enhance deterrence. It would also allow the EU to act independently in regions where U.S. interests diverge from European ones, such as the Sahel or the Indo-Pacific. The Strategic Compass initiative and the European Defence Fund are steps in this direction, but a more unified and binding framework is needed (EUISS, 2025). Moreover, the EU should integrate its defense industry into its broader trade and industrial strategy. By treating defense as a pillar of economic sovereignty, the EU can stimulate innovation, create high-skilled jobs, and reduce dependency on non-European suppliers. A coordinated defense industrial policy would also enhance the EU’s leverage in global trade negotiations, particularly in dual-use technologies and cybersecurity. Exporting European-made defense technologies under strict ethical guidelines could strengthen strategic partnerships, especially with countries like Canada and Brazil. This approach would not only bolster the EU’s security but also reinforce its position as a global economic and geopolitical actor.
4. Improving Relations with China: Pragmatic Engagement - The EU’s trade with China is vast and growing, particularly in green technologies and digital infrastructure (European Commission, 2025). Rather than decoupling, the EU should pursue a policy of “de-risking,” maintaining economic ties while protecting critical sectors. Constructive engagement on climate change, global health, and WTO reform is essential. Improved relations with China would also provide the EU with leverage in its dealings with both Washington and Beijing, reinforcing its role as a balancing power in a multipolar world (EUISS, 2025). To achieve this, the EU must adopt a dual-track approach: assertive in defending its values and interests, yet open to cooperation where mutual benefits exist. For instance, joint ventures in renewable energy, electric vehicles, and battery technology could accelerate the EU’s green transition while reducing dependency on fossil fuels. Additionally, the EU should push for greater market access and reciprocity in sectors like digital services and pharmaceuticals. Establishing structured dialogues on cybersecurity, AI ethics, and supply chain resilience would also help manage strategic risks. By engaging China through a rules-based framework, the EU can promote stability, reduce the risk of economic fragmentation, and ensure that its global competitiveness is not undermined by geopolitical tensions.
5. Engaging the Global South - Building Equitable Partnerships for a Multipolar Future: As the global balance of power shifts, the European Union must deepen its engagement with the Global South—not only as a matter of economic diversification but as a strategic imperative. Countries across Africa, Asia, and Latin America are asserting greater agency in global governance, trade, and climate diplomacy. The EU should position itself as a reliable and equitable partner by promoting inclusive development, fair trade, and sustainable investment. This engagement must go beyond traditional aid models. The EU should co-develop infrastructure, digital connectivity, and green energy projects through initiatives like Global Gateway, offering a transparent and values-based alternative to other global powers. Strengthening partnerships with regional organizations such as the African Union, ASEAN, and CELAC can also enhance multilateral cooperation on issues ranging from food security to migration and health resilience. Moreover, aligning trade and investment policies with the development goals of partner countries will foster long-term trust and mutual benefit. By supporting local value chains, technology transfer, and education, the EU can help unlock the potential of emerging economies while reinforcing its own strategic autonomy. A robust partnership with the Global South will not only expand the EU’s influence but also contribute to a more balanced and cooperative international order.
The EU must respond decisively to the evolving global landscape. The mercantilist and nationalist turn in U.S. trade policy is not a temporary deviation but a structural shift. In this context, the EU should reproach the UK to uphold European unity, strengthen ties with Canada and Brazil to diversify its partnerships, create an effective common defense policy and industry to ensure strategic autonomy, and improve relations with China and global south to maintain global relevance. These actions are not merely reactive—they are essential steps toward a more resilient, sovereign, and influential European Union.
References:
European Commission. (2025). EU trade relationships by country/region. Retrieved from https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region_en
European Union Institute for Security Studies. (2025, May 15). Resilience by design: A new EU Foreign Economic Policy to counter global disorder. Retrieved from https://www.iss.europa.eu/publications/briefs/resilience-design-new-eu-foreign-economic-policy-counter-global-disorder
