The Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau (SMG) said in a statement yesterday that severe tropical storm “Podul”, located in the northwest Pacific Ocean yesterday, would possibly move towards the eastern coast of Guangdong Province after first making landfall in the Taiwan region later this week, in which case Macau would be affected by heavy rainstorms at that time.
Depending on its strength, Macau’s observatory classifies a tropical cyclone into tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, and super typhoon.
At 8 p.m., yesterday, according to the SMG website, severe tropical storm “Podul” was located about 1,810 kilometres east of Macau and was forecast to move west at around 25 kilometres per hour towards the vicinity of the Taiwan region.
Yesterday’s SMG statement said that “Podul” was gradually intensifying and moving west at a relatively fast speed, approaching the Taiwan region later this week.
The statement said that due to its relatively small circulation, “Podul” was forecast to become weaker after making landfall in China’s Taiwan region.
However, the statement said, different forecasting models have come up with “quite different” forecasts for “Podul” in terms of its possible trajectories and strengths after its landfall in Taiwan.
Among the different traditional forecasting models, namely numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, the statement said, some of them forecast that “Podul” will adopt a more northerly trajectory, moving towards the vicinity of Fujian Province and Zhejiang Province.
However, the statement said, some of the NWP models, as well as a newly developed artificial intelligence (AI) forecasting model, forecast that “Podul” will instead adopt a more southerly trajectory, approaching the eastern coast of Guangdong Province.
The statement said that under the influence of an upper-level anticyclone, Macau will remain very hot for the next two days. As “Podul” approaches, the statement said, Macau is forecast to be affected by showers and thunderstorms more often by the end of this week.
If “Podul” adopts a trajectory closer to the eastern coast of Guangdong Province, the statement said, Macau is forecast to be affected by strong winds and rainstorms.
The statement underlined that the bureau’s forecasts for the weather conditions in Macau late this week are still subject to significant changes due to the relatively high level of uncertainty in the possible trajectories of “Podul”.
