A statement by the Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau (SMG) said yesterday that a low-pressure area, currently located in the waters east of the Philippines, is forecast to enter the South China Sea over the weekend, when it is expected to gradually develop into a tropical cyclone, which is predicted to move towards the vicinity of Hainan Island early next week.
Depending on its strength, Macau’s observatory classifies a tropical cyclone into tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, and super typhoon.
However, the statement said, different forecasting models have come up with “very different” forecasts for the possible tropical cyclone in terms of its movement speeds and the increases in its strengths.
According to the statement the different traditional forecasting models, namely numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, forecast that the possible tropical cyclone will intensify and move at a relatively slow speed, while a newly developed artificial intelligence (AI) model forecasts a faster speed.
However, the statement said, due to a relatively strong level of the subtropical high-pressure system early next week, all forecasting models predict that the possible tropical cyclone will adopt a more southerly trajectory, moving towards the area south of Hainan Island.
Consequently, the statement said, whether Macau will be affected by a typhoon will depend on the possible tropical cyclone’s distance from Macau and changes in its intensity while moving in the South China Sea.
The statement said that under the influence of an upper-level anticyclone and weak winds, Macau will be very hot over the weekend. As the possible tropical cyclone enters the South China Sea, the statement said, Macau is forecast to be affected by showers and thunderstorms more often early next week, while winds in Macau are expected to intensify.
This infographic provided by the Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau (SMG) yesterday shows the low-pressure area (red circle) located in the waters east of the Philippines.
